Okolona Weather

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK... An initial round of light rain tonight into Wednesday will result in rainfall amounts generally less than a half inch. Areas in far southern Kentucky could see around a half inch, with lower amounts farther north. These light rains will precede much heavier rainfall that is forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening through early Saturday...as a continuous stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a stationary front to produce an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Slightly drier than normal soil moisture and below normal to well below normal streamflows should help to mitigate the risk for flooding to some degree. However, given the expected atmospheric pattern, confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall will result in flash flooding and river flooding issues. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Thursday night through Friday night. By Saturday, widespread average rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely. Thunderstorms could locally enhance rainfall amounts and produce narrower swaths of 4-5+ inches of rain. This amount of rain would certainly increase the risk for both flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding. Ensemble river guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential for minor river flooding is along the Muscatatuck River (Deputy), Blue River (Fredericksburg), Ohio River (Tell City), Elkhorn Creek (Peaks Mill), Rough River (Dundee), and Green River (Woodbury/Rochester). Probabilities for minor river flooding are roughly 30-50%. There is at least a small chance (10%) for minor river flooding along the Ohio River (McAlpine Lower/Cannelton).

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK... An initial round of light rain tonight into Wednesday will result in rainfall amounts generally less than a half inch. Areas in far southern Kentucky could see around a half inch, with lower amounts farther north. These light rains will precede much heavier rainfall that is forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening through early Saturday...as a continuous stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a stationary front to produce an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Slightly drier than normal soil moisture and below normal to well below normal streamflows should help to mitigate the risk for flooding to some degree. However, given the expected atmospheric pattern, confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall will result in flash flooding and river flooding issues. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Thursday night through Friday night. By Saturday, widespread average rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are likely. Thunderstorms could locally enhance rainfall amounts and produce narrower swaths of 4-5+ inches of rain. This amount of rain would certainly increase the risk for both flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding. Ensemble river guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential for minor river flooding is along the Muscatatuck River (Deputy), Blue River (Fredericksburg), Ohio River (Tell City), Elkhorn Creek (Peaks Mill), Rough River (Dundee), and Green River (Woodbury/Rochester). Probabilities for minor river flooding are roughly 30-50%. There is at least a small chance (10%) for minor river flooding along the Ohio River (McAlpine Lower/Cannelton).

...Heavy Rainfall Likely Late This Week... ...Minor River Flooding Possible Friday Night Through the Weekend... The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has designated a Slight Risk of excessive rain in southern Indiana Thursday night. WPC has outlined a *Moderate* Risk of excessive rain for Friday evening and Friday night in southern Indiana and north central and western Kentucky, with a Slight Risk in southern and eastern Kentucky. A continuous stream of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a slow-moving front to produce an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall Thursday evening through Friday. A cold front will then bring widespread heavy rain to the region from Friday night into Saturday morning. Slightly drier than normal soil moisture and below normal to well below normal streamflows should help to mitigate the risk for flooding to some degree. However, given the expected atmospheric pattern, confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall will result in local flash flooding and minor river flooding. The heaviest rain is likely to fall Friday night. By Saturday, widespread average rainfall totals (Thursday through Saturday) of 2-4 inches are likely generally north of a line from Morgantown to Bardstown to Paris. One to two inches can be expected south of that line. Thunderstorms could locally enhance rainfall amounts and produce narrower swaths of 4-5 inches of rain, especially over southern Indiana. This amount of rain would certainly increase the risk for both flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding. Ensemble river guidance continues to suggest the greatest potential for minor river flooding is along the Muscatatuck River (Deputy), Blue River (Fredericksburg), Ohio River (Tell City), Elkhorn Creek (Peaks Mill), Rough River (Dundee), and Green River (Woodbury/Rochester). Probabilities for minor river flooding are roughly 30-50%. There is at least a small chance (10-30%) for minor river flooding along the middle Ohio River (McAlpine Lower/Cannelton). Stay tuned for future flood watches and possible warnings.