...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK...
An initial round of light rain tonight into Wednesday will result
in rainfall amounts generally less than a half inch. Areas in far
southern Kentucky could see around a half inch, with lower amounts
farther north. These light rains will precede much heavier
rainfall that is forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening
through early Saturday...as a continuous stream of moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico will interact with a stationary front to
produce an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Slightly
drier than normal soil moisture and below normal to well below
normal streamflows should help to mitigate the risk for flooding
to some degree. However, given the expected atmospheric pattern,
confidence is increasing that heavy rainfall will result in flash
flooding and river flooding issues.
The heaviest rain is likely to fall Thursday night through Friday
night. By Saturday, widespread average rainfall totals of 2-4
inches are likely. Thunderstorms could locally enhance rainfall
amounts and produce narrower swaths of 4-5+ inches of rain. This
amount of rain would certainly increase the risk for both flash
flooding and minor to moderate river flooding.
Ensemble river guidance continues to suggest the greatest
potential for minor river flooding is along the Muscatatuck River
(Deputy), Blue River (Fredericksburg), Ohio River (Tell City), Elkhorn
Creek (Peaks Mill), Rough River (Dundee), and Green River
(Woodbury/Rochester). Probabilities for minor river flooding are
roughly 30-50%. There is at least a small chance (10%) for minor
river flooding along the Ohio River (McAlpine Lower/Cannelton).